Barclays data shows essential spending contracts while entertainment surges on Harry Styles tour sales

UK consumer card spending grew by just 1.0% in February, remaining well below the latest CPIH inflation rate of 3.2%, as escalating conflict in the Middle East triggered a sharp decline in economic confidence across the UK, Europe and the US, according to the latest Barclays Consumer Spend report published today.

The findings, based on hundreds of millions of customer transactions and consumer research conducted between 3rd-6th March, reveal that confidence in the UK economy fell two percentage points to 23% following the recent outbreak of hostilities – down from 25% at the end of February.

Geopolitical Fears Bite

Four in five (82%) UK adults expressed concern about the impact of Middle East tensions on fuel costs, while 81% worry about energy bills and 78% about inflation. Food prices (76%), supply chain disruption (70%) and economic slowdown (69%) also feature prominently among consumer anxieties.

More than half (56%) are concerned about potential travel disruption, with one in 10 (9%) now reconsidering upcoming travel plans.

The research, comparing data from late February with early March, shows confidence in the European economy dropped to 26% from 29%, while US economic confidence fell to 24% from 26%. Global economic confidence slid to 22% from 24%.

Jack Meaning, Chief UK Economist at Barclays, said: "This timely insight into consumers' reaction to the evolving situation in the Middle East highlights perfectly the economic risks for the UK if the conflict doesn't find a way to de-escalate in short order. The start of 2026 had brought positive signs of growth and improving consumer sentiment. A new, prolonged, bout of uncertainty risks snuffing that out before it has had a chance to really get going."

Spending Patterns Diverge

Essential spending contracted by 0.6% in February, with 63% of consumers actively seeking ways to reduce their weekly shopping bills. However, non-essential spending reached a six-month high of 1.8%, suggesting consumers are prioritising discretionary purchases despite broader economic caution.

The entertainment sector emerged as a standout performer, growing 9.9% – an 11-month high – driven by live shows and concerts which surged 14.0%. Ticket sales for Harry Styles' sell-out 'Together, Together Tour', which went on sale on 30th January, made a significant contribution to the uplift, underscoring sustained consumer appetite for experiential spending.

Digital content and subscriptions grew at their fastest rate since August 2021, up 12.2%, boosted by "streamflation", popular series including 'Love Story' and 'Bridgerton', and the rise of premium subscriptions for AI and fitness applications.

Retail and Hospitality Performance

Within retail, pharmacy, health and beauty saw robust growth of 6.4%, while general retailers and marketplaces rose 4.6% and clothing increased 3.7%. Grocery spending grew a modest 0.7%, with supermarket transactions declining 2.0% as shoppers sought value.

The eating and drinking category rose 2.4%, with bars, pubs and clubs up 3.3% and restaurants gaining 2.9%. However, takeaway and fast food growth lagged at just 1.3%, with 23% of consumers reporting they are cutting back on fast food for health reasons.

Value-Conscious Consumers

The report highlights increasingly savvy spending behaviour, with one in three (33%) consumers saying they never pay full price, and 24% reporting they get a "thrill" from finding discounts. Almost a third (30%) readily switch brands to obtain better value, while 29% maximise loyalty points from travel and rewards programmes.

Karen Johnson, Head of Retail at Barclays, commented: "February's data highlights the careful balancing act shoppers face in navigating rising costs amidst global uncertainty. While we're seeing a continued appetite to spend on categories such as entertainment and wellness – obtaining value for money and savvy spending will remain a strong focus in the months ahead."

Nearly half (46%) of consumers are taking action in response to economic uncertainty, including reducing energy consumption (16%), cutting discretionary spending (13%), building savings buffers (10%) and delaying major purchases (10%).

The Barclays Consumer Spend report draws on data from nearly 40% of the nation's credit and debit card transactions, covering the period 23rd January to 19th February 2026.