Alfa-Bank: 60% of wealthy clients expect moderate economic growth in 2026

Alfa-Bank conducted the first large-scale study among wealthy clients - "Barometer of Large Capital". In the course of the survey, experts studied the expectations of respondents on the economy and investment climate, and also found out how wealthy investors form capital management strategies, what sources of information they rely on and what role they assign to new technologies.

The study showed that in 2026, wealthy clients remain cautious but adaptive. The main priority for most remains stable long-term profitability with a controlled level of risk.

Conservative attitude and focus on capital preservation

60% of respondents expect that the economy in 2026 will develop in conditions of limited dynamics: 40% predict almost zero growth, another 20% - moderate growth. At the same time, 24% expect a moderate decline in the economy.

Such expectations form a conservative approach to capital management. 73% of respondents called ensuring stable long-term profitability a key task. In second place is the development of their own business and investment projects in Russia (23%). Another 14% pay attention to asset diversification, and 13% pay attention to updating the capital management strategy and involving the next generation in asset management.

High demand remains for reliable instruments with a low level of risk. To achieve a target return with moderate risk, experts recommend a conservative portfolio structure — a significant share of assets in federal loan bonds, corporate bonds of high credit quality, money market funds, and deposits.

At the same time, yield expectations remain quite high. 41% of respondents consider a return of at least 15% per annum with minimal risk to be acceptable. Another 43% are ready to accept limited risk for the sake of a yield of 20% per annum.

The main risks: taxes, inflation and uncertainty

62% of respondents name an increase in the tax burden and possible changes in tax rules as a key risk for the economy. For capital owners, this factor is directly related to the dynamics of companies' profits and return on investment.

In second place is the growth of external uncertainty (47%). At the same time, clients note that the impact of external factors on the operating environment is gradually decreasing, which indicates the ability of business and the financial system to adapt to new conditions.

Among the internal risks, 40% of respondents single out possible changes in the regulatory agenda, and 37% - accelerating inflation or a combination of inflationary pressure with a slowdown in the economy.

At the same time, expectations for personal inflation remain noticeably higher than official benchmarks: 71% of respondents believe that their personal inflation in 2026 will exceed 8%, of which 37% expect a level above 12%. Only 4% expect inflation below 5%.

High uncertainty also affects the planning horizon. More than half of wealthy clients (55%) believe that short-term financial planning for a period of up to one year is optimal: 28% focus on a horizon of 6-12 months, another 27% - for a period of up to six months. Another 15% are ready to make investment plans for 1-1.5 years, and 14% for 1.5-3 years.

On the international agenda, the majority of respondents also proceed from the status quo scenario: 45% expect the current conditions of interaction with Western countries to be maintained, with stable relations with partner countries. 17% of respondents count on either a gradual expansion of business contacts, or, conversely, on the complication of relations.

Personal expertise is more important than technology

Despite the growing interest in digital tools, personal expertise still plays a key role in making investment decisions. 70% of the study participants rely on it. Another 40% use information from open business sources and the media, and the same number use recommendations from external consultants and banks. 29% focus on subject matter experts within their own business, 21% focus on specialized Telegram channels.

A separate block of research was devoted to the use of artificial intelligence. Today, 65% of wealthy clients do not use AI in wealth management: 34% admit that they have not yet understood the technology, another 31% indicate a lack of trust.

21% use AI in a limited way – for routine tasks, such as collecting and processing information, and 20% consider it as an additional source of "second opinion". Only 2% of respondents actively use AI in financial decision-making.

The results of the study show that in 2026, wealthy investors rely on capital stability, flexibility of strategies and the ability to quickly adapt to changing conditions. At the same time, new technologies are perceived more as an auxiliary tool that can speed up analysis and improve the convenience of working with data, but not replace professional expertise.

Alfa-Bank is the largest universal private bank in Russia. It is developing in the format of a neotech platform, offering customers a seamless digital experience for solving financial and everyday problems.

For 35 years, it has been holding leading positions in all segments of the banking business. The bank's net profit for 9 months of 2025 based on International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) reached 190 billion rubles. The bank notes the continued growth of its customer base — the number of retail customers at the end of 2025 amounted to 42.7 million people, small and medium-sized businesses — more than 2.3 million customers.

Alfa-Bank operates on the Phygital model, combining digital innovations with an effective physical presence network, which has more than 800 offices and more than 30,000 settlements with delivery.