Hong Kong is rapidly consolidating its position as a premier global center for wealth management and digital assets. Bloomberg scenario analysis projects that by 2031, assets under management (AUM) in Hong Kong’s private banking and private wealth management sector could exceed HKD 20 trillion (USD 2.6 trillion), nearly doubling from HKD 10.4 trillion in 2024.

This growth is fueled largely by rising household wealth in mainland China, expected to reach RMB 580 trillion by 2030 at an annual growth rate of 9.3%. Low interest rates and structural constraints in the domestic property market are driving mainland investors to diversify from bank deposits and real estate toward equities, mutual funds, and overseas investments. Hong Kong, with its established financial infrastructure bridging mainland and international markets, combined with policies attracting high-net-worth migrants and family offices, is well-positioned to capture a significant share of this cross-border capital.

Market Performance and Sector Drivers

The financial sector has demonstrated strong momentum. Between January and October 2025, Hong Kong and mainland financial stocks gained 39% and 23%, respectively, outperforming the MSCI Global Financial Index’s 18%. Trading activity in both markets hit record highs in Q3, with Futu and Hang Seng Bank leading gains in the MSCI Hong Kong Financial Index. Banks are expected to benefit from inflows into wealth management, though uncertainties around U.S. interest rates and commercial real estate risks remain. Insurance companies, including AIA and Prudential, also stand to gain from robust cross-border sales.

Key performance indicators for wealth managers include the inflow of client funds, new business premiums (APE) for insurers, and wealth management revenue, client acquisition, and app engagement metrics for brokers. These metrics will reflect both the scale and quality of cross-border wealth flows.

Asset Management Outlook

Hong Kong’s private banking sector recorded HKD 10.4 trillion in AUM in 2024, reversing negative returns from 2021–2023. Bloomberg projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% through 2031, assuming net annual inflows equivalent to 5% of initial AUM and an average annual investment return of 5%. Mainland investors are expected to account for a rising share of total AUM—from 65% in 2024 to 73% in 2031—highlighting China’s central role in Hong Kong’s wealth management ecosystem.

Policy initiatives, including preferential cross-border access, regulatory incentives, and interest rate differentials between Hong Kong and mainland China, are significant drivers of fund inflows. Wealth managers are also tapping into increased risk appetite among mainland clients, with a growing allocation to equities, private equity, digital assets, and hedge funds, while defensive assets such as cash, money market funds, and precious metals may see a relative decline.

Cross-Border Wealth Expansion and Deposits

Mainland inflows are also expected to drive Hong Kong deposit growth, projected to reach HKD 23 trillion (USD 2.9 trillion) by 2030, up from HKD 18.7 trillion in mid-2025. Optimistic scenarios suggest deposits could climb to HKD 25.9 trillion, underpinned by sustained interest rate advantages over the mainland and ongoing interconnectivity via QDII schemes, Stock Connects, Mutual Recognition of Funds, and Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect programs.

This capital migration is reinforced by demographic shifts, such as retirement funding demand, and structural reforms aimed at enhancing investor protection and market transparency. Retail investor sentiment, recovering since Q4 2024, further supports allocations to higher-yielding financial products.

Hong Kong vs. Switzerland

Bloomberg estimates indicate that Hong Kong may soon surpass Switzerland to become the world’s largest non-resident wealth management center. By the end of the decade, Hong Kong-managed offshore assets could reach USD 2.9 trillion, bolstered by its unique position linking mainland capital to international markets. While Singapore continues to attract diversified investments from mature mainland investors seeking exposure outside Greater China, Hong Kong’s proximity, regulatory integration, and infrastructure advantages provide unparalleled opportunities.

Policy measures expanding cross-border market access, including broadening eligible products under Stock Connect, including REITs, and supporting RMB-denominated equities, reinforce Hong Kong’s role. These initiatives create fertile ground for both the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and private wealth institutions to capture inflows from an expanding high-net-worth clientele.

In summary, Hong Kong’s combination of regulatory support, financial infrastructure, and proximity to mainland China positions it to become the preeminent hub for cross-border wealth management, capturing a rising share of global private capital and potentially eclipsing long-standing European leaders.