GBA – Waiting for the Spring
·GBAI indices remained in expansionary zone in Q4-2025, despite weaker demand and investment appetite
·Expectations sub-indices for production/sales, new orders and profits stayed above 50
·Professional services and retail and wholesale outperformed; Hong Kong recorded further improvement
·Nearly 55% of respondents expressed interest in expanding their business in the Middle East
Mixed performance across sectors and cities
Our GBA Business Confidence Index (GBAI), based on quarterly surveys of over 1,000 companies operating in the Guangdong Hong Kong Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) and conducted in collaboration with the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC), showed a q/q weakening of business activity and sentiment in Q4 2025. The ‘current performance' index for business activity retreated 4.4pts to 50.3. While sub indices like new orders, investment and profits falling below 50, production/sales and output prices continued to stay above 50. The ‘expectations' index dropped 4.7pts to 51, mainly dragged down by a more cautious investment, financing and capacity utilisation outlook. That said, the ‘expectations' sub indices for production/sales, new orders and profits stayed in expansionary territory.
The headline index for retail sales & wholesale, and professional services edged up to 55.1 and 55.3, respectively, while that for manufacturing & trading and financial services fell below 50. Hong Kong outperformed and led the other GBA cities, with the headline index rising to 54.9. The current performance and expectations sub indices for business activity and credit picked up. Meanwhile, Shenzhen and Foshan's headline index fell into contractionary territory, partly due to a normalisation from the Q3 2025 jump.
Our thematic findings show that nearly 55% of surveyed GBA companies are interested in expanding their business in the Middle East, mainly in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, with some having already established businesses there. Nearly all respondents believe professional services from Hong Kong are needed to assist in business expansion.
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