China's foreign trade is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, supported by rising export competitiveness, diversification of trading partners, and a large domestic market that continues to absorb imports. Analysts suggest that these trends contribute to market stability in an international environment marked by protectionist measures.

Data from the General Administration of Customs indicate that China's total foreign trade in goods reached RMB 41.21 trillion (around USD 6 trillion) in the first eleven months of 2025, up 3.6 percent year-on-year. Exports rose 6.2 percent to RMB 24.46 trillion, with mechanical and electrical products accounting for RMB 14.89 trillion, or 60 percent of total exports.

Innovation is a primary driver of export performance. Companies are increasingly emphasizing technological upgrades, product development, and brand positioning rather than competing solely on cost. For example, Beiya Electrical Appliance Co. now ships an average of 350,000 units per month of brushless-motor hair clippers to the US, Europe, and the Middle East, supported by over 70 patents and RMB 15 million in R&D investment. Across sectors, Chinese manufacturers are moving up the value chain, focusing on higher value-added segments. Between 2010 and 2024, China's trade specialization coefficient for high-value manufacturing rose from zero to 0.31, reflecting a gradual strengthening of comparative advantage.

Trade diversification has also progressed. China ranks among the top three trading partners for 157 countries and regions, with Belt and Road Initiative nations accounting for more than half of total trade in 2024. Exports to emerging markets, including ASEAN, Latin America, Africa, and Central Asia, have grown at average annual rates exceeding 10 percent. ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, surpassing the EU and the US.

China's role as a major import market is expanding alongside its export activity. Total imports of goods and services are projected to exceed USD 15 trillion over the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–25). Agricultural imports in the first three quarters of 2025 rose 2.6 percent to USD 57.1 billion, while electromechanical and high-tech imports increased 5 percent and 8.6 percent, respectively. Initiatives such as “Big Market for All: Export to China” and zero-tariff treatment for least developed African countries have facilitated access for foreign suppliers.

Analysts note that China's combination of market scale, openness, and innovation-driven demand provides both opportunity and stability for global businesses. The country's openness index climbed from 0.59 in 1990 to 0.76 in 2024, reflecting steady expansion amid global contraction. Special economic zones, including Hainan Free Trade Port with 74 percent zero-tariff coverage, further illustrate ongoing efforts to facilitate trade.

Export growth is projected at 5–6 percent annually, potentially outpacing global trade expansion. Coupled with rising domestic consumption, China is increasingly both a source and destination for global goods. For international investors and companies, this trade landscape underscores opportunities in high-value manufacturing, consumer goods, technology, and services.